The idea of banning gasoline-powered vehicles is gaining momentum around the world. Several countries have announced plans to phase out gas cars over the next 10-20 years, including the UK, France, India and others. But what would actually happen if gas cars were completely banned? Here we look at the potential effects this could have on the auto industry, consumers, the environment and the economy.
Why ban gas cars?
The main driver behind proposals to ban gas cars is reducing greenhouse gas emissions from transportation. Transportation accounts for around 15% of global carbon dioxide emissions, with passenger vehicles making up the bulk of that. Switching to electric vehicles powered by renewable energy would significantly reduce carbon emissions from driving. Other motivations include reducing air pollution in cities and reducing dependence on imported fossil fuels.
Effects on the auto industry
Banning gas cars would force automakers to completely shift production to electric vehicles. Most major automakers already have plans to electrify their lineups over the next decade. But an outright ban would accelerate the transition and likely lead to heavy investment in new EV platforms. Automakers may struggle at first to keep up with demand for EVs if gas cars are banned outright. There could be supply shortages which drive up EV prices initially. But over time, as production scales up, prices should stabilize. Some automakers with less resources may not be able to make the shift as quickly. Brands focused on performance gasoline cars may fade unless they successfully transition to high-performance EVs. Overall, the auto industry will need to rapidly adapt to survive in a market without gas cars.
Job impacts
The transition from gas to electric vehicles will also impact automotive jobs. EV powertrains have far fewer parts than gas engines, requiring less labor. Up to half of engine and transmission manufacturing jobs could be lost in the switch to EVs according to some estimates. However, new jobs will be created in battery production and other EV components. With retraining programs, many gas powertrain workers could transition into these new roles. Jobs at dealerships will also change, with fewer repairs and tune-ups needed for simpler EV powertrains. Overall employment in auto manufacturing may shrink somewhat. But new jobs in EV infrastructure like charging station installation will offset some of these losses. With proactive policies, we can ensure the transition away from gas cars creates decent green jobs for auto workers.
Effects on consumers
For consumers, banning gas car sales would limit vehicle options to just electric models. Affordability may be an issue initially if supply is constrained. As production scales up, EV prices should come down to parity with gas cars, aided by falling battery costs. Consumers will need access to home, workplace and public charging to accommodate EVs. Some who can’t charge at home may be reluctant to buy in until charging infrastructure improves. Urban residents in apartments may have a harder time transitioning. Travelers will need to plan charging stops on long road trips instead of gas fill ups. But as charging networks expand, range anxiety should subside. Maintenance costs will be lower with fewer mechanical repairs needed. Overall ownership costs may be cheaper, but upfront purchase prices could stay higher for longer without subsidies. Some consumers will eagerly transition while others may hold onto gas cars longer.
Used car market
Used gas cars will likely retain more value and sell for higher prices as supply dwindles. Vintage gas car collectors may pay premiums for well-maintained classics. But others may offload them quickly to avoid being stuck with a low-value gas vehicle. Dealers may export used gas cars to countries where bans don’t exist, as with high-polluting diesels in Europe. Scrappage schemes could incentivize junking old gas cars. Overall, expect the used gas car market to shrink steadily as electric models displace them.
Environmental impact
The main goal of gas car bans is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Widespread EV adoption coupled with clean electricity generation could greatly reduce transportation emissions. Provided the power grid shifts to renewable energy, EVs charged on solar, wind or hydro energy could offer carbon-free commuting. Air pollution will also be slashed, improving public health. Silent electric motors will reduce noise pollution from traffic. However, toxic battery production and disposal issues will need to be better managed. While not emissions-free, EVs charged on a green grid represent a vast improvement over gas cars.
Reduced oil dependence
Phasing out gas cars would dramatically lower oil demand, starving oil producers of a major market. Petrostates dependent on oil exports would be forced to diversify economies. With widespread EV adoption and clean energy supplying the power grid, our dependence on imported fossil fuels would greatly diminish. This would have profound geopolitical implications and alter strategic relations founded on oil trade. Some unrest could ensue in places heavily dependent on oil revenue. But forcing vehicle electrification may be the only way to break the global economy’s oil addiction.
Economic impact
Ending gas car sales will have wide-ranging economic effects:
– Auto manufacturers will face huge costs to retool factories and develop new EV models. This may inhibit innovation and access for smaller automakers.
– Oil companies will see demand and profits decimated. Their valuations may plummet. Some may go bankrupt or transition to energy companies focused on renewables.
– Electricity demand will soar. Utilities will need to rapidly expand clean energy generation from solar, wind, hydro and perhaps nuclear. New transmission infrastructure will be needed.
– Battery production will have to scale up massively to supply vehicle demand. Raw material mining and battery manufacturing will become major growth industries.
– Gas stations will disappear or transition to charging stations and convenience stores. Many will go out of business, costing jobs.
– Mechanics will see demand for repairs and tune-ups shrink. Survivors will mostly service EVs.
– Government tax revenue from fuel sales will decline but can be offset by EV fees and carbon taxes.
– Tourism and recreation may benefit from cleaner air, trails and less road noise.
The economic shocks could be severe in the short term. But the switch to EVs may stimulate growth in renewables, batteries and charging infrastructure that offsets losses over time. With smart policies that ease the transition, economies could thrive on clean electrified transport.
Policy measures needed
Phasing out new gas car sales won’t be simple. Governments will need to use carrots and sticks to drive the transition:
– Generous electric vehicle purchase subsidies to make EVs affordable. Lower license fees for EVs could also incentivize buyers.
– Building widespread charging infrastructure with public funding.
– Investing in training programs to help auto workers transition into EV manufacturing and servicing jobs.
– Tax breaks for automakers to retool factories from gas cars into EVs.
– Stricter fuel efficiency and carbon emission standards on new gas cars until the phase-out.
– Higher gas taxes and registration fees on gas cars to discourage purchases. Rebates for scrapping old gas cars.
– Clean energy investment and installation of renewable power generation to charge EVs sustainably.
– Indexing combustion engine bans to EV cost parity – when EVs reach cost competiveness, gas cars get banned.
– Canceling new fossil fuel car infrastructure like pipelines, refineries, etc.
With supportive policies that ease the economic shocks, an orderly transition can be achieved. But delays will only extend our fossil fuel dependence.
| Policy | Purpose |
|---|---|
| EV purchase subsidies | Make EVs affordable |
| Charging infrastructure funding | Enable convenient EV charging |
| Retraining programs | Help auto workers transition |
| Automaker tax breaks | Incentivize factories switching to EVs |
| Cleaner car standards | Drive gas car phaseout |
| Gas car tax hikes | Discourage gas car purchases |
| Renewable energy investment | Provide clean electricity for EVs |
| Index phaseout to EV cost | Ban gas cars when EVs reach cost parity |
Challenges
Banning combustion cars won’t be without challenges:
– Current limitations of EV batteries mean they can’t yet fully replace all gas cars for every purpose and range needed. Technology still needs to advance further.
– Charging infrastructure is inadequate in many places and will require massive investment to scale up properly.
– Electricity generation from renewables will need to expand exponentially to provide clean energy for millions of EVs.
– Retraining all workers impacted by the transition will be difficult and require substantial government funds.
– Until battery costs fall further, EVs may remain unaffordable for many lower income consumers despite subsidies.
– Phasing out existing gas cars will take 1-2 decades to turn over the fleet. Hybrid phaseout plans are probably needed.
– Some developing countries may lack resources to transition quickly and require international assistance.
But none of these challenges are insurmountable with sufficient determination, investment and planning. And the societal benefits from displacing gas cars make this shift absolutely imperative.
Potential timeline
Here is one possible timeline for how a gas car phaseout could unfold:
2025 – Many countries announce plans to ban sales of new gas cars by 2035-2040. Auto manufacturers ramp up EV production and development. Global charging networks expand rapidly.
2030 – 50% of new car sales are EVs. Used gas car prices climb as supply drops. Fuel taxes raised steeply to discourage gas car purchases. Massive clean energy investments made.
2035 – Many major markets ban new gas car sales. Limited exceptions made for commercial uses where alternatives aren’t yet viable. EV production hits over 50% globally. Used gas cars become scarce.
2040 – 90% of new car sales are EVs. Gas and diesel supplies drop, forcing remaining drivers to switch. Oil companies diversify into renewable energy. Gas stations disappearing rapidly.
2045 – Almost all passenger vehicles are EVs. Other segments like trucks transition more slowly. Fossil fuel companies fading or evolving into energy companies.
2050 – Gas cars are rare antiques only seen at car shows. Oil demand has plummeted. The auto industry is fully electric. Clean energy powers the world’s vehicles sustainably.
This timeline requires tremendous effort and coordination. But it results in clean transport decoupled from fossil fuels well before mid-century. The faster we can make this transition, the better it will be for our climate and health. Banning gas car sales is a crucial milestone on this path.
Conclusion
Phasing out gas-powered vehicles in favor of clean EVs promises enormous benefits but won’t be simple or painless. With smart policies that ease the economic impacts, countries can transition their auto industries and reap the environmental and health payoffs. There will be challenges along the way as technologies, business models and consumer habits evolve. But the destination is worth the disruptions required to get there. Banning the sale of new gas cars is a pivotal step toward sustainable transport free of tailpipe emissions and imported oil. The sooner we start, the faster we’ll finish this journey.
