Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022, both sides have suffered heavy losses of military equipment and personnel. One of the most visually striking indicators of Russia’s losses has been the large number of destroyed, damaged, abandoned, and captured Russian tanks seen in photos and videos coming out of Ukraine. But coming up with an accurate and verified count of Russia’s total tank losses is challenging due to the fluidity of the situation on the ground and the difficulty of confirming every single loss.
Why quantifying Russian tank losses matters
Still, being able to quantify Russian tank losses can provide meaningful insights into how the war is unfolding and the relative combat effectiveness of both militaries. Russia entered the war with an estimated 2,700-3,300 tanks from its Western Military District, Southern Military District, and elsewhere that were deployed or mobilized for the invasion. The scale of Russia’s tank losses can illustrate its struggle to advance in the face of fiercer than expected Ukrainian resistance. It can also reveal vulnerabilities and weaknesses in how Russia has operated and supported its mechanized forces during the conflict. Assessing tank losses on both sides shapes understanding of the war’s progress and the remaining military capabilities of the belligerents.
Challenges in tracking Russian tank losses
However, accurately tallying Russian tank losses is difficult for a number of reasons:
– The fluidity of front lines makes counting destroyed or captured vehicles on the battlefield hazardous. Tanks can change hands multiple times.
– Wreckage can be obscured by buildings, trees, or smoke. Battlefield videos often capture only a fraction of destroyed vehicles.
– It is hard to differentiate tanks destroyed in the current war from older wrecks from past conflicts.
– Russia makes attempts to tow or repair damaged tanks, removing them from the battlefield before losses can be confirmed.
– Both sides exaggerate enemy losses for propaganda purposes.
– There is no single agreed upon definition of when a tank is considered destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured.
Open source intelligence collection
With these limitations in mind, various research organizations have made efforts to tally Russian tank losses using open source intelligence collection and analysis. This involves compiling images and videos shared on social media from soldiers, journalists, and civilians on the ground. Analysts try to confirm locations, identify vehicles, and vet sources to build a tally of visually confirmed losses.
However, open source intelligence inherently undercounts the true rate of attrition, since a great deal of battlefield activity can’t be captured on video. As a result, open source loss estimates should generally be considered minimum confirmed losses, with total actual losses likely being higher.
Estimates of Russia’s tank losses
Here are the estimates on Russian tank losses in Ukraine from various open source intelligence analysts as of November 2022:
Oryx
– At least 1,463 Russian tanks visually confirmed as destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured per Oryx blog list
– Oryx states this is a minimum confirmed number given limitations of open source collection
International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
– Approximately 1,000 Russian tanks destroyed through late October 2022
The Economist
– Approximately 760 Russian tanks destroyed through late August 2022
Defense Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
– 1,549 Russian tanks destroyed through early November 2022
Jakub Janovský
– 1,032-1,396 Russian tanks lost through late October 2022
Ukraine Weapons Tracker
– 896 Russian tanks destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured through late October 2022
Analysis of Russian tank loss estimates
These estimates reveal a wide range for calculating Russian tank losses, from around 760 on the low end to as many as 1,549 on the high end as of November 2022. The differences stem from varying methodologies and the pace of losses over time. However, even taking the most conservative estimate, Russia has still lost several hundred irreplaceable modern tanks like the T-72B3, T-80BVM, and T-90A.
Heavy losses relative to initial invasion force size
A loss of at least 760 tanks would represent around 25-30% of the roughly 2,700-3,300 tanks Russia assembled for its invasion. This level of attrition is highly significant given how critical tanks are to Russia’s combined arms warfare doctrine. It indicates a major deficiency in how Russia has manned, operated, and supported its premier armored formations.
Losses keep mounting with no end in sight
Russia’s tank losses have continued to ratchet upward, suggesting the Kremlin has been unable to address the root causes of this attrition. Once destroyed, damaged, or captured, Russian tanks are proving very difficult to replace given challenging economic circumstances and Western export controls on key components.
Ukraine also suffering tank losses
At the same time, Ukraine has also endured significant tank losses during the fighting that reduce its own armored combat power. Open source estimates indicate Ukraine has lost 100-300 tanks thus far. However, Ukraine retains an advantage in that its Western partners can and have been supplying replacement tanks and parts.
Breakdown of Russian tank losses by type
The Russian tank fleet comprises a mix of Soviet-era legacy tanks and more modern designs. Though less advanced than new Western tanks, Russia’s modern T-72, T-80, and T-90 variants carry strong firepower, optics, and reactive armor packages. Seeing the breakdown of losses by tank type illustrates which models have proven the most vulnerable.
| Tank Model | Number destroyed/captured |
|---|---|
| T-72B3 | 257 |
| T-72B | 174 |
| T-80BV | 87 |
| T-80BVM | 80 |
| T-72A | 78 |
| T-72B1 | 55 |
| T-80U | 53 |
| T-90A | 42 |
| T-64BV | 39 |
| T-62M | 25 |
This sample data highlights losses have spanned all types, from older legacy T-62s up to Russia’s best T-90s. The outsized role of modernized T-72B3 losses undermines Russia’s expectations of leveraging these tanks as a decisive advantage in the war.
Geographic analysis of Russian tank losses
The geographic areas seeing the heaviest tank losses provide insights into where Russia’s armored forces have struggled most against Ukrainian resistance. These regions represent significant examples of Russia failing to advance and consolidate gains despite its prewar advantage in tanks:
Northern axis including Kyiv
Russia committed a sizeable tank contingent to its failed bid to quickly capture Kyiv in the invasion’s initial phase. Intense urban combat saw Russia lose tanks in Bucha, Brovary, Chernihiv, and other areas around the capital. Stalled, stuck in mud, ambushed in narrow streets, and abandoned by crews, Russian armor took extensive losses.
Eastern Donbas region
As the locus of fighting shifted east, the contested Donbas region has become a killing ground for more Russian tanks. Urban combat in cities like Severodonetsk and Lysychansk increased losses. Well-prepared Ukrainian anti-tank teams also extracted a toll on Russian armor.
Southern Kherson region
Russia has lost numerous tanks during its contested occupation of the Kherson region and northern parts of the Zaporizhzhia region. Ukrainian counteroffensives pressing from Mykolaiv towards Kherson city have battered Russian armored units through ambushes and anti-tank strikes.
Kharkiv region
Ukraine’s September counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region was a debacle for Russia’s tank forces. Dozens were abandoned in haste as Russian troops retreated. Ukrainian troops captured numerous modern T-80BVM tanks largely intact.
Factors contributing to Russia’s tank losses
Russia’s struggles with mounting tank losses stem from a combination of factors that reflect deeper flaws in its military’s readiness and competency:
Tactical and operational missteps
– Poor combined arms coordination with dismounted infantry
– Overly ambitious attempts to penetrate deep beyond secure front lines
– Excessive deployment of tanks in urban terrain
– Lack of effective forward reconnaissance
– Inability to establish definitive air superiority
Technical issues
– Weak armor protection relative to modern anti-tank weapons
– Frequent breakdowns with tanks in disrepair
– Limited tank-infantry communication capabilities
– Inadequate optics and thermal sights
Training and morale problems
– Conscript crews with minimal tank training
– Confusion and lack of initiative at low unit levels
– Logistical convoys left exposed and vulnerable
– Tank crews abandoning vehicles rather than fighting
Effective Ukrainian resistance
– Clever ambushes from concealed positions
– Skilled crews manning Ukrainian T-64s and T-84s
– Precision strikes from Javelin and NLAW anti-tank missiles
– Creative use of turkish-provided Bayraktar drones
Conclusion
Russia’s massive losses of several hundred to over a thousand tanks so far in Ukraine represents a major Putin regime failure. Years spent modernizing Russia’s tank fleet did not translate into expected decisive results on the battlefield. The loss of 25-30% of the invasion force’s tanks reveals underlying issues in Russian doctrine, training, and readiness. It is an advantage Ukraine and its Western partners must continue pressuring through providing advanced anti-tank weapons and other critical military aid. Russia meanwhile faces long-term challenges reconstituting its damaged armored units.
