The Premier League is the top tier of English football, featuring 20 of the best clubs in England and Wales. With the prestige and financial rewards that come with being in the Premier League, there is intense competition between clubs to avoid relegation each season. Relegation means dropping down to the Championship, the second tier of English football. With so much at stake, Premier League clubs are laser focused on getting enough points to stay up. But how many points are typically needed to avoid the drop? Let’s take a closer look.
How is relegation determined in the Premier League?
At the end of each Premier League season, the bottom three teams in the standings are relegated to the Championship. These spots are determined purely on points accumulated over the 38 match season. Teams receive 3 points for a win, 1 point for a draw, and 0 points for a loss. The club with the fewest points at the end of the season finishes 20th place and is relegated, along with the teams in 18th and 19th place.
Sometimes two or more teams are tied on points. In this case, goal difference, which is goals scored minus goals allowed, is used as the first tiebreaker. If teams are equal on goal difference, then total goals scored is the next tiebreaker. So even if you have the same number of points as another club trying to avoid relegation, you could potentially stay up by having a superior goal difference or more total goals scored.
How many points are usually needed to avoid relegation?
Looking at historical final Premier League tables shows that about 35 points is typically enough to avoid relegation. Over the last 10 full Premier League seasons:
| Season | Points Needed to Avoid 20th Place | Points Needed to Avoid 19th Place | Points Needed to Avoid 18th Place |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 34 | 37 | 39 |
| 2020/21 | 36 | 36 | 39 |
| 2019/20 | 31 | 34 | 35 |
| 2018/19 | 31 | 33 | 38 |
| 2017/18 | 33 | 36 | 37 |
| 2016/17 | 34 | 40 | 41 |
| 2015/16 | 31 | 37 | 37 |
| 2014/15 | 33 | 35 | 37 |
| 2013/14 | 30 | 36 | 37 |
| 2012/13 | 25 | 36 | 39 |
As you can see, hitting the 35 point mark would have been good enough to avoid finishing bottom three in nearly all of the last 10 seasons. The one exception was 2012/13 when Wigan escaped relegation with just 36 points.
So while nothing is guaranteed, clubs realistically are targeting 35-40 points as their safety number. In a 38 match season, that equates to roughly 9-11 wins. Any club still in danger of relegation with 5 matches remaining would likely need 7 or 8 more points in those last few matches to feel safe.
Why do the numbers fluctuate year to year?
You may have noticed the points totals needed to survive vary from season to season. Why is that the case? There are a few reasons:
- The relative strength of the league changes. Some seasons may feature better clubs in the bottom half of the table that pick up more points.
- Scheduler quirks can help or hurt teams. For example, if a club gets to play all the Top 6 clubs early in the season while they are in form, it can increase their chances of relegation.
- Injuries, managerial changes, new signings, and other team factors can influence results and change the points pace of clubs fighting relegation.
So while 35 points is a good benchmark, if the bottom clubs are earning points at a higher rate, then the survival number creeps higher. Clubs and analysts track this pace over the course of the season when gauging what total will be sufficient to stay up.
Do home and away points matter in avoiding relegation?
Conventional wisdom states that avoiding relegation requires good home form given home field advantage. But a closer look at the data reveals away points are nearly just as vital.
Over the past 10 Premier League seasons, here is the average home and away points tally for the club finishing 18th:
- Home Points: 23
- Away Points: 15
So while more points come from home matches as expected, away points still account for over 40% of the total needed. Moreover, here are the home and away records for the three relegated clubs in 2021/22:
| Club | Home Points | Away Points |
|---|---|---|
| Norwich City (20th) | 13 | 7 |
| Watford (19th) | 23 | 7 |
| Burnley (18th) | 14 | 7 |
Norwich and Burnley had dreadful away records with just 7 points, yet both actually earned more home points than Watford. So while Watford picked up enough at home to survive, their terrible away record doomed them.
This shows clubs must pick up at least 10-15 away points over a season to realistically have a chance of staying up. Trying to survive on home points alone is very difficult over a 38 match campaign.
How does the 40 point threshold come into play?
Pundits and fans will often say the magic number clubs want to reach is 40 points. This comes from the old format of the First Division, with 22 teams and only 2 relegation spots. Back then, 40 points was seen as the total to guarantee safety.
Under the modern Premier League, 40 points is still a threshold clubs aim for, but it represents more of a comfort zone rather than a requirement. As seen above, teams have survived with totals in the mid 30s multiple times over the past decade.
Here’s a breakdown of how many teams reached 40 points over the past 5 seasons:
| Season | Teams Reaching 40+ Points |
|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 12 |
| 2020/21 | 11 |
| 2019/20 | 12 |
| 2018/19 | 10 |
| 2017/18 | 11 |
On average, about 60% of the league reaches 40 points. Typically 8-9 of the teams that hit 40 points end up finishing in the bottom half of the table.
So in reality, 40 points just means a club is on the brink of safety, not completely clear of danger. With the bottom clubs earning enough points to stay up in the mid 30s, the 40 point mark does not guarantee Premier League survival like it used to.
Does the head-to-head record between tied clubs matter?
If two clubs are tied on points at the end of the season, their head-to-head record is the first tiebreaker. At first glance, this suggests clubs fighting relegation need to maximize points in their matches against direct rivals.
But in practice, head-to-head records rarely determine who gets relegated. Looking at the past 10 seasons again, head-to-head was not needed as a tiebreaker in any season.
The closest call came in 2020/21 when Fulham finished 18th on 28 points and Brighton finished 17th on 29 points. Had Fulham drawn 2-2 at home against Brighton instead of losing 1-0, the clubs would have been level on 30 points and Fulham would’ve stayed up on head-to-head.
So while it can influence very tight relegation battles, head-to-head is rarely an outright deciding factor. The total points tally over the whole season is a much bigger consideration for managers trying to keep their clubs up.
How do surviving Premier League clubs change their strategy late in the season?
As the season winds down, clubs still in the relegation fight often change strategy and personnel in hopes of gaining enough points:
- Managers switch to more defensive formations and tactics to tighten things up at the back
- Key attacking players may be dropped for those who work harder defensively
- Clean sheets become the priority rather than attacking play
- Experience is valued over youth, leading to veteran players featuring more regularly
- New signings may be brought in specifically for their survival experience
- Team meetings focus on discipline, organization and fighting spirit
It’s not necessarily the most exciting brand of football, but clubs are desperate for points, not style, at this stage. The mentality shifts to one of grit, determination and sacrifice.
We saw this play out last season as Everton switched to five at the back late in the campaign, ground out results under veteran manager Frank Lampard, and did just enough to escape relegation. So while pretty football won’t save you, a survival mentality and defensive solidity gives clubs the best chance as the season concludes.
Conclusion
While no magic number exists, a good guideline for Premier League survival is 35-40 points. This generally requires 9-11 wins, with around 15 of those points coming away from home. Bottom clubs change strategy as the season progresses, becoming more pragmatic and defensive minded in a bid to grind out results.
With the financial implications of relegation massive, clubs fight desperately at season’s end to pick up the points needed to retain their Premier League status. For the fans hoping their team stays up, seeing them hit that 35 point mark is when belief truly sets in that they’ll survive another season in the top flight.
