Does poker depend on luck?

Poker is a complex game that involves elements of both skill and luck. There is an ongoing debate among players and analysts about how much each factor contributes to success in poker. In this article, we’ll examine the evidence on both sides of this discussion.

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The role of luck in poker

There’s no question that luck plays a significant part in poker. The cards you are dealt in any given hand are entirely random. No matter how skilled you are, you can’t control whether you are dealt strong starting hands like pocket aces or weak ones like 7-2 offsuit. The flop, turn, and river are also determined randomly. So sheer luck can make a huge difference in the outcome of any single hand or session.

Luck also comes into play because of the community card nature of games like Texas hold’em. You are relying partially on the board cards to make strong hands. Even if you have a great starting hand, your odds of winning go down significantly if the board doesn’t connect with your cards. So even skillful play can be undone by getting unlucky on the community cards.

The inherent randomness of poker means that in the short term, almost anyone can win or lose regardless of skill level. A bad player can get lucky and win a tournament, while the most skilled player can have an unlucky streak and go bust. Luck evens out in the long run, but it has a huge short-term impact.

The role of skill in poker

At the same time, it’s a myth that poker is purely a game of luck. Skilled poker play involves many strategic elements that can help you maximize your win rate and expected value over time. Here are some of the ways that skill makes a difference:

Hand selection – Skilled players know which starting hands to play from each position and how to vary their ranges based on game dynamics.

Bet sizing – Betting the right amount for different situations involves math skills and consideration of factors like pot odds.
Bluffing – Effective bluffing requires understanding of board textures, opponent tendencies, and betting patterns.
Game theory – Balancing ranges, exploiting player types, and applying other strategic concepts give an edge.

Bankroll management – Skilled players know proper BR management to survive variance and avoid going bust.
Reading opponents – Tells, betting patterns, and other info can be used to deduce the strength of opponents’ hands.

Experts put in huge amounts of study time away from the table working to improve their technical poker skills. That work pays off through better decision making each hand. While they can’t change the luck factor, they can use skill to maximize their edge.

Quantifying luck vs skill

Determining exactly what percentage poker results come down to luck vs skill is difficult. But studies of huge numbers of hands have given us some estimates. Here is a look at what researchers have found:

A study of over 450 million online poker hands found skill accounted for about 70% of match outcomes, with luck making up the other 30%.
Another analysis of billions of hands found skill explains 50-60% of variance among players, with luck accounting for the rest.

Some studies have found skill to be even more dominant, accounting for as much as 75-80% of poker results.

So while the estimates vary, most evidence points to skill being significantly more important than luck in determining poker success. Players who study and work on their games can overcome the luck factor over time.

Why misconceptions about luck persist

If skill is so much more vital than luck, why do misconceptions persist that poker is mostly gambling? Here are some reasons why the luck factor is overestimated:

Single-hand focus – When one bad beat hand shifts a huge pot, it’s easy to forget skill prevailed over thousands of previous hands.
Luck in prominent hands – Luck plays a disproportionate role in widely televised hands like crazy bluffs.
Cognitive biases – Many players remember and focus on unlucky “bad beats” more than demonstration of skill.

Unobserved factors – Casual observers can’t see players’ card sense, math skills, bet sizing, and other skill factors.
Outcome bias – Winning players are assumed to be more skilled when much of edge comes from luck.
Difficulty estimating ranges – Balanced ranges and mixed strategies make skill hard to discern for amateurs.

So while luck gets much of the attention, skill quietly does most of the work in shaping long-term poker results. Players need to look past random single-hand luck to see the skill edge in action.

Examples of skill making the difference

It’s easy to think short-term luck outweighs skill when focusing on single surprising hands. But over the long run, players with skill consistently come out ahead. Here are some real-world examples where expertise clearly overcame luck:

Doyle Brunson – He won the World Series of Poker main event two years in a row. That’s no accident.

Chip Reese – Regarded as the best cash game player ever. His skill let him beat the highest stakes despite variance.
Daniel Negreanu – Has won 6 WSOP bracelets and more than $42 million in tournaments. A model of poker skill.
Viktor Blom – Dominated online high stakes cash games for years, despite high variance swings.

Stu Ungar – Won the WSOP main event 3 times in his short career. Considered the most naturally talented player ever.

While they occasionally got lucky, these players’ demonstrated skill is what allowed them to generate huge winnings over time at the highest levels of the game.

Ways players can improve poker skill

If you want to rely less on short-term luck and more on long-term skill, there are steps you can take to improve as a poker player. Here are some effective ways to build your expertise:

Learn optimal strategy for your game types – Courses, books, videos, and coaching help.
Study advanced concepts like game theory and equity calculations.
Analyze your own play history and leaks.

Drill with poker software to automatize your responses.
Join training sites for quizzes, interactive lessons, etc.
Discuss hands and get feedback from other skilled players.

Watch instructional streams of top players explaining their thought processes.
Get plenty of hands of experience at appropriate stakes.

With deliberate focused practice over time, any player can reduce the amount of winrate variance from luck and instead shift the results towards their skill edge.

Key takeaways

While poker certainly has an unavoidable element of luck, skill plays a much bigger role in determining outcomes for players who put in the work to study and practice. Some key points to remember:

Many studies estimate skill accounts for 50-80% of poker results over time.
Players who develop expertise through training and experience can overcome luck.

Misconceptions about luck persist due to cognitive biases and difficulty observing skill factors.
With education and practice, any player can improve their skill edge at poker.

So does poker depend on luck? While luck is certainly a factor, players that rely on continually improving their skill level will find they can conquer variance and succeed in the long run.

Conclusion

The “luck vs. skill” debate in poker may never be fully settled, but the evidence clearly indicates poker is more a game of skill than sheer gambling. Outcomes for any given hand, session, or tournament are influenced by randomness. But experts who maximize their edge through extensive skill development can overcome luck to consistently win at all levels of the game. While the cards you are dealt are random, how you play them is within your control. Dedicated players who set themselves apart by studying theory, analyzing leaks, drilling practice, and learning from pros will be rewarded as their skill shines through over time. Luck whispers; skill roars. With the right amount of wisdom and work, anyone can become a winning player by embracing the skill side of this fascinating game.