Norwich City are one of the favorites to earn promotion from the Championship back to the Premier League this season. After being relegated in the 2020/21 campaign, the Canaries are aiming to bounce back at the first time of asking under manager Dean Smith.
Can Norwich City bounce straight back up?
History suggests Norwich have a good chance of immediately returning to the top flight. In the last decade, the majority of teams relegated from the Premier League have managed to earn promotion again within one or two seasons.
Since the 2011/12 season, 17 teams have been relegated from the Premier League to the Championship. Of those teams, 10 (58.8%) have achieved promotion back to the Premier League again within one or two seasons.
| Season Relegated | Club | Seasons in Championship |
|---|---|---|
| 2011/12 | Bolton | 1 |
| 2011/12 | Blackburn | 1 |
| 2011/12 | Wolves | 1 |
| 2012/13 | Reading | 1 |
| 2012/13 | QPR | 1 |
| 2012/13 | Wigan | 1 |
| 2013/14 | Cardiff | 2 |
| 2013/14 | Fulham | 1 |
| 2013/14 | Norwich | 1 |
| 2015/16 | Newcastle | 1 |
| 2015/16 | Aston Villa | 1 |
| 2016/17 | Hull City | 1 |
| 2016/17 | Middlesbrough | 3 |
| 2017/18 | Swansea | 1 |
| 2017/18 | Stoke City | 3 |
| 2017/18 | West Brom | 1 |
As the data shows, the majority of relegated teams manage to bounce back up within one or two seasons. Out of the 17 teams relegated in the past decade, 10 (58.8%) achieved promotion in either their first or second season in the Championship.
Recent examples of teams immediately bouncing back up include Newcastle, Aston Villa, Norwich City themselves and West Bromwich Albion. All four of those teams were relegated in one season, only to achieve promotion again the very next season.
The trend suggests that Norwich have a strong chance of going straight back up this season, given that immediate promotion is achieved by most relegated Premier League teams.
Do promoted teams tend to go straight back down?
While most relegated Premier League teams achieve quick promotion back, the data also suggests that many promoted teams struggle to adapt and avoid immediate relegation again.
Since 2011/12, there have been 24 promoted teams from the Championship to the Premier League. Of those 24 promoted teams, 12 (50%) were relegated straight back to the Championship the very next season.
| Season Promoted | Club | Seasons in PL before next relegation |
|---|---|---|
| 2011/12 | Norwich | 2 |
| 2011/12 | Swansea | 7 |
| 2011/12 | QPR | 1 |
| 2012/13 | Reading | 1 |
| 2012/13 | West Ham | 7 |
| 2012/13 | Cardiff | 1 |
| 2013/14 | Hull City | 2 |
| 2013/14 | Crystal Palace | 7 |
| 2014/15 | Leicester | 5 |
| 2014/15 | Burnley | 1 |
| 2014/15 | QPR | 1 |
| 2015/16 | Watford | 5 |
| 2015/16 | Bournemouth | 5 |
| 2015/16 | Norwich | 1 |
| 2016/17 | Burnley | 3 |
| 2016/17 | Hull | 1 |
| 2016/17 | Middlesbrough | 1 |
| 2017/18 | Newcastle | 2 |
| 2017/18 | Brighton | 3 |
| 2017/18 | Huddersfield | 2 |
| 2018/19 | Wolves | 3 |
| 2018/19 | Cardiff | 1 |
| 2018/19 | Fulham | 1 |
| 2019/20 | Leeds | 2 |
| 2019/20 | West Brom | 1 |
As shown in the data, 12 out of the 24 promoted teams (50%) went straight back down in their first season. This highlights the difficult transition from the Championship to competing against stronger Premier League opposition and increased quality.
Recent examples include Fulham, Huddersfield, Cardiff City and Norwich themselves during their last Premier League season in 2019/20. All were relegated again after just one campaign back in the top flight.
The data suggests there is around a 50/50 chance of immediate relegation for promoted teams. While Norwich will be one of the favorites for promotion this season, their Premier League status next season is far from secure if they do go up.
How have Norwich City fared in recent promotion/relegation cycles?
Norwich City themselves have experienced their fair share of promotion and relegation cycles over the past decade. Here is a look at their recent history:
| Season | Division | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| 2009/10 | Championship | Promoted to PL |
| 2010/11 | Premier League | Relegated to Championship |
| 2011/12 | Championship | Promoted to PL |
| 2012/13 | Premier League | Relegated to Championship |
| 2013/14 | Championship | Promoted to PL |
| 2014/15 | Premier League | Relegated to Championship |
| 2015/16 | Championship | Promoted to PL |
| 2016/17 | Premier League | Relegated to Championship |
| 2017/18 | Championship | 14th place |
| 2018/19 | Championship | Promoted to PL |
| 2019/20 | Premier League | Relegated to Championship |
| 2020/21 | Championship | 6th place |
| 2021/22 (current) | Championship | ? |
As shown, Norwich have been relegated from the Premier League four times since 2010. However, they have managed to bounce back to the top flight with promotion three times over the same period.
This highlights how Norwich have established themselves as a bit of a “yo-yo club” over the past decade. Relegation has often been followed swiftly by promotion the next season.
Their current situation sees them well-placed to continue that trend under new manager Dean Smith, having narrowly missed out on immediate promotion last season.
What are Norwich’s chances of promotion in 2022/23?
Based on pre-season odds, transfer business and their form at the end of last season, Norwich City are currently the bookmakers’ favorites to earn promotion from the Championship this campaign.
At the end of the summer transfer window, Norwich have odds of between 6/4 and 13/8 to gain automatic promotion to the Premier League this season.
This implies a probability of between 57% and 62% that Norwich will finish in the top two places and go up automatically.
Their closest rivals in the promotion odds are Watford and Sheffield United, but Norwich are still favored ahead of both teams.
Key factors behind Norwich being pre-season favorites include:
- Keeping the core of their squad together from their recent Premier League campaigns.
- Appointing Dean Smith as head coach, who has previous Championship promotion experience with Aston Villa.
- Signing players with proven pedigree in the Championship like Isaac Hayden and Gabriel Sara.
- Finishing last season strongly under Smith, losing only 1 of their last 15 games.
The bookmaker odds and pre-season predictions reflect that Norwich have one of the strongest and most experienced squads in the Championship.
Their squad depth, quality and know-how of winning promotion from this level makes them well-positioned for another quick return to the Premier League.
Who will be their main challengers?
While Norwich City are favorites for promotion, there are a number of other strong challengers hoping to finish in the top six Championship places.
The main contenders predicted to push Norwich hardest for automatic promotion are:
Watford
Relegated from PL last season. Have appointed experienced coach Rob Edwards and retained key players like Ismaila Sarr.
Sheffield United
Reached play-off semi finals last season. Signed proven goalscorer Oli McBurnie and have retained squad core.
West Bromwich Albion
Narrowly missed out on promotion last campaign. Appointed Steve Bruce as manager and have a squad packed with PL experience.
Middlesbrough
A surprise package last season, reaching the play-off semi finals. Signed quality reinforcements like Matthew Hoppe and Darragh Lenihan.
Burnley
Relegated from the PL in 2021/22. Huge club parachute payments could help fund promotion push under Vincent Kompany.
Other dark horses who could mount an unlikely promotion push include Sunderland, Luton Town, Millwall and QPR.
However, Norwich’s main competition is most likely to come from Watford and Sheffield United pushing them hard for automatic promotion.
Verdict: Will Norwich get promoted in 2022/23?
Based on assessing several factors – including past promotion trends, pre-season odds, squad strength and main competition – the verdict is that Norwich City have an excellent chance of earning promotion back to the Premier League this season.
History shows that most teams relegated from the PL return within 1-2 seasons, and Norwich are perfectly set up to replicate previous promotion campaigns.
They have retained a strong core squad, made some smart summer signings, and appointed a promotion-winning manager in Dean Smith.
With the strongest and most experienced squad in the division, Norwich deserve their status as pre-season favorites for automatic promotion.
Their main challengers like Watford and Sheffield United are likely to push them close. But Norwich should have enough quality to achieve a top two finish over the course of the season.
Of course, there are no guarantees in the ultra-competitive Championship. The heavy fixture schedule and scrappy nature of matches can be tough on PL teams relegated into the division.
Norwich may have to be patient and grind out results early on as their squad adapts back to Championship football after two years away.
However, all the pre-season signs point towards Norwich City sealing a swift promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking under Dean Smith.
