What are the odds of Liverpool beating Real Madrid?

Liverpool and Real Madrid are set to face off in the UEFA Champions League final on May 28, 2022 at the Stade de France in Paris. This will be a rematch of the 2018 Champions League final, where Real Madrid defeated Liverpool 3-1. With both teams filled with world-class talent, this final is shaping up to be an exciting clash between two European giants.

Liverpool’s UCL Campaign This Season

Liverpool has had an impressive UEFA Champions League run so far this season. They finished top of their group, which included Atletico Madrid, Porto and AC Milan. Liverpool then defeated Inter Milan 2-1 on aggregate in the Round of 16. In the quarterfinals, Liverpool convincingly beat Benfica 6-4 on aggregate. In the semifinals, Liverpool staged an epic comeback against Villarreal, overturning a 2-0 deficit from the first leg to win 5-2 on aggregate.

Throughout their UCL campaign, Liverpool has demonstrated stellar attacking play, with the likes of Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Luis Diaz being constant threats going forward. Defensively, Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate have been rocks at the back. Alisson has also made some crucial saves in goal to keep Liverpool’s Champions League hopes alive.

Real Madrid’s UCL Campaign This Season

Meanwhile, Real Madrid has also had an eventful run to the final. They finished top of their group, which consisted of Inter Milan, Shakhtar Donetsk and Sheriff Tiraspol. Real Madrid then staged dramatic comebacks against PSG and Chelsea in the knockout stages. After losing the first leg to PSG 1-0, Madrid won the second leg 3-1 to advance 3-2 on aggregate. Against defending champions Chelsea, Real lost 3-1 in the first leg but came back to win the second leg 2-3 after extra time, advancing 5-4 on aggregate.

Like Liverpool, Real Madrid has no shortage of attacking talent, with the likes of Karim Benzema, Vinicius Junior and Luka Modric in excellent form. They have produced some resolute performances in defense as well, with Thibaut Courtois proving to be extremely difficult to beat in goal.

Recent Head-to-Head Record Between Liverpool and Real Madrid

Liverpool and Real Madrid have faced each other 8 times in European competition. Their head-to-head record is:

Competition Liverpool Wins Real Madrid Wins Draws
UEFA Champions League 1 3 2
UEFA Cup 1 0 1

As the table shows, historically Real Madrid has had the upper hand, winning 3 out of the 6 Champions League meetings. However, Liverpool did defeat Real Madrid in the 1981 UEFA Cup final.

Key Factors That Could Influence the Outcome

There are several key factors that could sway the outcome of this Champions League final clash:

  • Injuries/Fitness: Both teams have had injury issues towards the end of the season. For Liverpool, Fabinho raced back from a hamstring injury to play against Villa while Virgil van Dijk was also taken off as a precaution. Real Madrid has had muscle fatigue problems with key players like Benzema and Modric. Fitness levels on the day will be crucial.
  • Experience: Real Madrid has vastly more European experience than Liverpool. They have won a record 13 European Cups compared to Liverpool’s 6. In terms of Champions League finals, this will be Real’s 17th appearance, while only Liverpool’s 10th.
  • Momentum: Liverpool heads into the final on a high after narrowly missing out on the Premier League title by 1 point. They have the momentum of a long winning streak. Real Madrid has had a stop-start few months lacking consistency.
  • Tactics: How Liverpool sets up to handle Madrid’s counterattacking threat and how Real deals with Liverpool’s relentless pressure will be key tactical factors.

Liverpool’s Odds of Winning

Based on their strong Champions League performances this season and their Premier League title challenge, many consider Liverpool the slight favorites heading into this final. As of May 23rd, here are some of the odds for a Liverpool win:

  • Bet365: 7/5
  • Betfair: 13/10
  • BetMGM: 6/5
  • DraftKings: 5/4

The odds from major bookmakers imply that Liverpool has approximately a 40-45% chance of lifting the trophy. These odds seem reasonable considering Liverpool’s robust form and attacking talent. However, the oddsmakers still recognize Real Madrid’s European pedigree by keeping them neck and neck as favorites.


Given how strong both teams are, this Champions League final is incredibly difficult to predict. Liverpool has had an outstanding season and probably deserves to be slight favorites based on current form. However, with all their experience on this stage, you can never count Real Madrid out.

Looking at the key matchups, Liverpool’s forwards should get plenty of joy against Madrid’s aging center-backs. But containing Madrid’s counters down the other end is critical for Liverpool. Ultimately, the midfield battle between the likes of Modric, Kroos, Casemiro vs. Fabinho, Thiago, and Henderson will be decisive.

Considering all factors, a minor edge has to be given to Liverpool. While it will be a tight, cagey affair, Liverpool should be able to do enough to emerge victorious by a score of 2-1 or 3-1. Despite Real Madrid’s history in this competition, Liverpool’s offensive weapons in the form of Salah, Mane and Diaz will be too much to handle over 90 minutes.


In conclusion, while Real Madrid cannot be written off, Liverpool appears to have a slight advantage heading into this Champions League final based on current form, as reflected in the bookmakers’ odds. Key factors like injuries, experience and midfield battles will surely come into play. But Liverpool’s fearsome attack should ultimately overwhelm Real’s defense just enough for them to clinch their seventh European Cup by a one or two goal margin. This would cap off an incredible season for Liverpool, having come so close in the Premier League and League Cup. Now poised to win two major trophies, everything is lining up for Klopp’s Liverpool to establish themselves among Europe’s elite with another famous Champions League triumph.

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