Quick Answer
As of November 7, 2023, there are currently no hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin. The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, so there is still some time left for any additional storm development. However, hurricane formation typically drops off significantly by mid-November as conditions become less favorable.
Current Storm Activity
The National Hurricane Center is not monitoring any areas for potential tropical development in the Atlantic at this time. The last named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season was Hurricane Lisa, which dissipated on October 23rd.
Since then, conditions have become increasingly hostile for tropical cyclone formation. Factors including cooler water temperatures, increased wind shear, and dry air have snuffed out any budding disturbances that could have organized.
Seasonal Summary
The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season produced 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher. This level of activity is considered near-normal based on the 30-year average from 1991 to 2020.
Some of the most significant storms this season included:
Hurricane Fiona
Fiona reached Category 4 intensity at its peak. The powerful hurricane lashed the Caribbean and Eastern Canada, causing over $800 million in damage.
Hurricane Ian
Ian became a destructive Category 4 hurricane before making landfall in southwest Florida. The storm caused catastrophic flooding and over $100 billion in damage.
Hurricane Nicole
Nicole was a rare November hurricane that hit Florida’s east coast as a Category 1. It caused significant coastal flooding and erosion.
Below is a summary table of all named storms during the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season:
| Name | Category | Maximum Winds | Areas Affected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex | Tropical Storm | 70 mph | Bermuda |
| Bonnie | Category 1 | 80 mph | Central America, Mexico |
| Colin | Tropical Storm | 65 mph | Southeast U.S. |
| Danielle | Category 1 | 75 mph | None |
| Earl | Category 2 | 105 mph | Central Mexico |
| Fiona | Category 4 | 140 mph | Caribbean, Canada |
| Gaston | Tropical Storm | 65 mph | Azores |
| Hermine | Category 1 | 80 mph | Mexico |
| Ian | Category 4 | 155 mph | Cuba, Florida |
| Julia | Tropical Storm | 60 mph | Nicaragua, El Salvador |
| Karl | Category 1 | 90 mph | Mexico |
| Lisa | Category 1 | 85 mph | Belize, Mexico |
| Martin | Category 1 | 75 mph | Bermuda |
| Nicole | Category 1 | 75 mph | Florida, East Coast |
Current Outlook
Looking ahead, it is highly unlikely that another tropical storm or hurricane will form before the end of the season on November 30th. The National Hurricane Center is not currently monitoring any areas with potential for development.
Oceanic and atmospheric conditions have become too hostile for tropical development. Sea surface temperatures are dropping below the 80°F threshold needed to sustain organized thunderstorm activity. Strong upper level winds are also preventing organization.
Additionally, the progression of the calendar into late fall means there is decreasing daylight and increasing dry air – both detrimental factors for tropical cyclone formation.
The End of Hurricane Season
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1st through November 30th. Around 97% of all tropical activity occurs within this 6-month period. The formation of tropical storms and hurricanes outside of the traditional season is rare, but not unheard of.
The last month of the season – November – typically sees a sharp drop-off in activity as conditions become unfavorable. On average, only 1 hurricane forms in the Atlantic basin during the month of November according to NOAA records.
As we approach late November 2023, the likelihood of additional hurricane formation continues to plummet with each passing day. Barring any surprise developments, the Atlantic will remain free of hurricanes for the remainder of the season.
The 2023 hurricane season will soon conclude as a near-normal year without any late-season storm surprises. For coastal residents, the ending of hurricane season brings a welcome sense of relief. The Atlantic should remain quiet until the 2024 hurricane season arrives next June.
How Hurricanes Form
Hurricanes and tropical storms take shape over the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Here is a closer look at how these spinning storms are born:
Warm Ocean Waters
Hurricane formation requires sea surface temperatures of at least 80°F. This warmth extends down through a deep layer of the ocean. The hot water provides fuel for the hurricane and allows evaporation to take place.
Low Wind Shear
Wind shear refers to a change in wind speed/direction with height. Strong wind shear can rip storms apart before they strengthen. Low shear allows storms to organize and intensify.
Spinning Disturbance
A pre-existing area of low pressure with clusters of thunderstorms starts to rotate horizontally due to the Earth’s rotation. This spinning disturbance draws its energy from the warm ocean waters.
Favorable Upper Level Winds
High pressure aloft acts as a cap, allowing the surface low to strengthen. Upper level convergence squeezes air upward to enhance thunderstorm activity.
Moist Mid-Levels
Abundant moisture throughout the atmosphere provides fuel for heavy rain and thunderstorm development. Dry mid-levels can restrict growth.
When all of these ingredients come together in the right sequence, a tropical depression or storm may form. If conditions remain favorable, it can continue strengthening into a hurricane.
Identifying Forming Hurricanes
Meteorologists have a variety of tools at their disposal to detect and analyze nascent hurricanes before they fully develop. Here are some of the key methods:
Satellite Imagery
Geostationary satellites provide continuous views of cloud patterns, helping pinpoint areas of concern for development. Infrared imagery shows areas of cold, high cloud tops associated with strong thunderstorms.
Weather Reconnaissance
NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft fly directly into disturbances to measure winds, pressure, and moisture levels. Dropsondes are released to take readings as they descend through the atmosphere.
Buoys & Radar
Data buoys monitor oceanic and atmospheric conditions. Coastal radar detects heavy rainfall and high waves that signal strengthening storms.
Computer Model Forecasts
Sophisticated computer models use atmospheric data to create simulations of potential storm development and movement. Ensemble models show various outcomes.
Ocean Heat Content
Altimeters measure the height of the ocean surface while bathythermographs record sub-surface temperatures. Higher ocean heat indicates more energy available for storm growth.
By analyzing this observational data, meteorologists can gain early awareness of hurricane formation and issue accurate forecasts days in advance. This allows time for proper preparation and response.
Preparing for Hurricane Formation
Here are some tips on preparing for hurricane formation threats:
Know the Basics
Understand hurricane terminology, risk factors, evacuation zones, and shelter options. Being informed is key.
Make a Plan
Discuss with family where to go and how to communicate in a hurricane emergency. Have an evacuation destination in mind far inland.
Get Supplies
Stock up on essentials including water, non-perishable food, flashlights, batteries, medication, first-aid items, and cash.
Secure Property
Board up windows, clear rain gutters and drains, tie down loose objects, move anything that could flood to upper floors.
Heed Warnings
Follow evacuation orders from local officials immediately. Get to shelter before arrival of harsh winds, storm surge, and rainfall.
Help Others
Check on elderly or disabled neighbors to ensure they are prepared and have a safe plan to follow. Offer to assist if needed.
Advanced readiness saves lives when hurricanes threaten coastal communities. Take warnings seriously and enact protective measures right away. Remaining vigilant into November is wise even as hurricane season wanes.
Conclusion
In summary, no hurricanes are currently developing in the Atlantic basin as of early-November 2023. The peak months of hurricane season have passed, and conditions are now becoming increasingly unfavorable for additional tropical cyclone formation. Barring any unexpected late season development, the Atlantic will likely remain free of hurricanes through the official end of the season on November 30th. Coastal residents can find some solace in knowing the risk of a landfalling hurricane has dropped significantly. However, it is still wise to stay prepared by monitoring the latest forecasts and heeding any warnings if necessary. Proper hurricane preparedness remains essential even as the calendar approaches December.
