Will gas cars be illegal to drive?

With concerns over climate change and pollution rising, there has been much discussion around banning the sale of new gas-powered vehicles. However, making it illegal to drive existing gas cars raises more complex questions. Here we examine if and when governments may prohibit driving conventional gas vehicles altogether.

Table of Contents

Quick Summary

Some key points on the potential illegality of driving gas cars:

Many countries and cities have pledged to phase out the sale of new gas vehicles by 2030-2040, but have not proposed banning driving existing gas cars.

Outright bans on driving gas cars would likely only be considered after electric vehicle technology improves, costs decline, and the charging infrastructure is widely built out.
Any ban would likely start in dense urban areas and progressively expand to whole countries over one to two decades.
Exceptions would have to be made for classic cars and other specialty vehicles not suited to electrification.

Phasing out gas cars via bans would have considerable economic, social, and political challenges to overcome.

When Might Driving Gas Cars Become Illegal?

While the idea of prohibiting all gas vehicles from public roads seems far-fetched today, many cities and countries have set ambitious timelines to phase out their sale. For example:

The UK plans to ban the sale of new gas and diesel cars and vans by 2030.

Canada is targeting 100% zero-emission car and passenger truck sales by 2035.
The EU aims to reduce new gas vehicle sales by 100% by 2035.
California plans to allow only zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035.

Over 15 countries have committed to fossil fuel car phase-outs by 2040 or sooner.

These targets will put millions of electric vehicles on the roads in coming years. But the vehicles bought before phase-out dates can generally remain in use. With average vehicle lifespans of 10-15 years, gas cars bought up until the 2030s-2040s will likely still be driven for many years after.

For a complete prohibition, governments would likely wait until EV technology matures, upfront costs approach parity with gas cars, charging networks expand sufficiently, and the majority of vehicles on the road are electric. This process could take 1-2 decades in progressive countries, and longer elsewhere. Norway, a global leader in EV adoption, still has ~75% fossil fuel cars despite its 2025 sales ban target.

Full phase-outs may begin in pioneering cities around the early 2030s, before expanding to national bans from the late 2030s to 2040s as conditions allow. But dates will vary considerably between regions.

Where Might Bans Happen First?

The most likely places for initial driving bans are dense urban areas where transport electrification is easier to implement. Cities will more readily meet the infrastructure and cost criteria required before prohibiting gas vehicles. Also, air and noise pollution improvements are greater motivations in urban environments.

Singapore is currently studying a targeted ban on driving conventional cars in its city center, likely by the mid-2030s. It already restricts the growth of gas vehicles through limited registration quotas and high costs. Other cities like London, Paris, and Los Angeles may follow with similar zero-emission zones over time.

Jurisdictions with smaller populations and areas will also find bans easier to facilitate. Countries like Denmark, Netherlands, and Belgium could pioneer nationwide prohibitions, before the policies expand to larger nations in the 2040s and beyond.

How Might Bans Be Enforced?

Enforcing driving bans on millions of legacy gas cars would require extensive tracking and policing. Various options exist:

License plate recognition cameras – Camera systems on roads could automatically identify and fine gas car drivers entering prohibited zones.

Emissions testing – Annual vehicle inspections could deny registration renewals for non-exempt gas cars.
Traffic stops – Police could manually pull over and ticket gas car drivers.
Report hotlines – Residents could report gas vehicle sightings for authorities to pursue.

RFID tags – Automated RFID readers on roads could identify gas cars via required tags.

Technology and policing costs would likely restrict enforcement to limited areas at first, like city centers. However, the threat of substantial fines and registration cancellations should eventually compel compliance.

What Exemptions Might Apply?

Outright bans on driving any gas vehicle would face backlash from owners of classics cars, custom vehicles, and models incompatible with electric conversion. Exemptions could include:

Vintage vehicles over a certain age, like classic cars from the 1970s or earlier.
Customized vehicles with major modifications.
Racing vehicles used exclusively on tracks.

Certain commercial trucks and agricultural equipment without electric options.
Vehicles proven to drive very low annual mileages.
Individual hardship cases approved by authorities.

Owners would likely require special registration and permits to continue driving exempted gas vehicles. Use could be restricted to certain days, events, or limited annual mileages.

Challenges to Banning Gas Cars

Prohibiting all conventional vehicles faces enormous practical hurdles aside from technology and infrastructure constraints. Challenges for policymakers include:

Economic impacts – A ban renders millions of vehicles worthless, representing large personal losses.

Inequality – Poorer groups may struggle to afford new EVs, even with trade-in schemes.
Charging access – Renters, apartment dwellers, and remote residents require improved charging access.
Grid capacity – Upgrades needed to support millions of new EVs charging daily.

Business interests – Oil and gas, auto dealerships, and related sectors will lobby hard against bans.
Enforcement costs – Policing prohibited gas cars could require substantial public spending.
Public acceptance – Cultural attachment to gas vehicles and resistance to forcing turnover.

Navigating these issues will require well-planned phase-out policies, financial incentives, heavy investment, and public education if outright bans are to succeed.

What About collector and exotic cars?

A blanket ban on gas vehicles would heavily impact collectors and enthusiasts who own exotic gas-powered sports cars, vintage classics, custom hot rods, and similar vehicles prized for performance, emotional, or investment value.

Policymakers would likely have to carve out exemptions for these specialized vehicles, given their limited use. This could allow continued road registration and driving under specific restrictions like:

Limits on annual mileage (e.g. 2,000 miles per year).
Restriction to car shows, tours, and private track events.
Geographic limits banning use in city/town centers.

Assigned limited registration days for use per month or year.

Alternatives like converting classics to electric drivetrains also often compromise the purity and value of highly collectible gas vehicles. Policymakers will need to balance preserving car culture against emissions goals.

Possible Compromises and Graduated Policies

Rather than outright bans, some governments may use more gradual policies to restrict but not prohibit driving conventional cars over time. Tactics could include:

Increasing registration/license fees annually for gas vehicles.
Introducing an emissions tax or fossil fuel levy.
Making emission inspections more frequent and strict.

Lowering speed limits for gas vehicles.
Limiting gas cars access to HOV/bus lanes.
Designating low emission zones which gas cars can only enter limited days.

Banning gas vehicles from city/town centers but allow elsewhere.

Such compromises allow more time for drivers to adjust while still reducing gas car use. However, they may not achieve desired pollution and emissions cuts as quickly as outright bans.

Global Outlook

A global phase-out of gas cars via driving bans could take until the 2050s or later. Countries like the US, China, Russia, and India will lag due to higher ongoing demand for gas vehicles and weaker policy support relative to progressive nations like those in Europe.

However, if electric vehicles prove cheaper long-term and charging networks develop worldwide, prohibition pressures could build universally over the 2040-2050 timeline.

International bodies like the UN and WHO may also push to end gas car CO2 emissions and fine particulate pollution by mid-century to meet climate and health goals.

Conclusions

Banning driving of gas cars will not happen for one to two decades in progressive nations, and likely later elsewhere.

Cities will pioneer bans before policies expand nationally.
Advances in EVs, charging networks, and climate priorities enable eventual prohibitions.
Driving bans face huge practical hurdles around enforcement, public acceptance, and disparate impact.

Compromise policies may restrict gas cars as interim steps to full bans.
Worldwide phase-outs may take until the 2050s due to varied adoption rates.
Exemptions will be required for legitimate specialty vehicle needs.

The internal combustion engine has dominated transportation for over a century. Phasing it out completely via bans on driving legacy gas cars will mark an epic shift with profound economic and social impacts. The transition will require careful policy and technological innovation to sustainably overhaul global mobility.

Table: Projected Timeline for Driving Bans

Region	Earliest bans	Potential pace of expansion
Pioneering cities (e.g. London, Los Angeles, Singapore)	Early 2030s	City center zones, expanding gradually citywide over 5-15 years.
Progressive smaller nations (e.g. Scandinavia, Netherlands)	Late 2030s	5-10 years to expand nationally.
Major progressive nations (e.g. Germany, Canada, UK)	Early to mid 2040s	10-15+ years to fully expand as infrastructure allows.
Moderate countries (e.g. USA, Eastern Europe)	Mid to late 2040s	15-25+ years for full adoption nationally.
Developing nations (e.g. China, India, South America)	Late 2040s to 2050s	20-30+ years to build EV infrastructure and phase in bans.