With two of the biggest lottery jackpots in U.S. history up for grabs, many players are wondering if they should buy tickets for Powerball or Mega Millions. Which game gives you better odds of winning? Let’s take a close look at the odds and payouts for each lottery to find out.
How Powerball and Mega Millions Work
Both Powerball and Mega Millions are national lottery games available in most states across the U.S. Here’s a quick overview of how each lottery works:
Powerball
- To play, choose 5 main numbers from 1 to 69, and 1 Powerball number from 1 to 26.
- Drawings are held every Wednesday and Saturday night.
- To win the jackpot, you must match all 5 main numbers plus the Powerball.
- Other prizes are available for matching some numbers without the Powerball, or just the Powerball alone.
Mega Millions
- To play, pick 5 main numbers from 1 to 70, and 1 Mega Ball number from 1 to 25.
- Drawings are held every Tuesday and Friday night.
- To win the jackpot, match all 5 main numbers plus the Mega Ball.
- You can also win smaller prizes by matching some numbers without the Mega Ball, or the Mega Ball by itself.
Both games offer a couple ways to win smaller prizes, but the huge jackpots are won by matching all 5 main numbers plus the Powerball or Mega Ball. So let’s focus on the odds of hitting that elusive jackpot.
Odds of Winning Powerball vs. Mega Millions Jackpot
Your chance of winning either jackpot ultimately comes down to the odds. Here are the odds of winning the Powerball and Mega Millions jackpots:
| Lottery | Odds of Winning Jackpot |
|---|---|
| Powerball | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| Mega Millions | 1 in 302,575,350 |
As you can see, Mega Millions has longer odds of 1 in over 302 million, compared to Powerball’s 1 in over 292 million. So your chances of hitting the jackpot are slightly better in Powerball.
Why the Difference in Odds?
What accounts for the small difference in odds between the two lotteries? It comes down to the numbers you have to choose from:
- Powerball chooses 5 numbers from a pool of 69, and 1 number from 26.
- Mega Millions chooses 5 numbers from a pool of 70, and 1 number from 25.
So your chances go down just a bit for Mega Millions because you have a larger pool of numbers to choose from. But either way, your odds of winning either jackpot are astronomically low.
Which Jackpot is Typically Bigger?
Another factor to consider is the size of the jackpots. If one lottery consistently has much larger jackpots, that would give you a better shot at a bigger payday if you manage to hit the odds and win.
Over the years, there have been periods where either Mega Millions or Powerball had the upper hand in jackpot size. For example, Mega Millions held the previous record jackpot of $1.537 billion in 2018. But lately, Powerball has edged out Mega Millions more often in terms of jackpot size:
- Right now, the Powerball jackpot is $1.9 billion, again breaking the all-time record.
- The current Mega Millions jackpot trails at $1.1 billion.
- Looking back at recent jackpots over the past couple years, Powerball has more frequently surpassed Mega Millions in jackpot size.
The jackpots grow based on ticket sales, so this indicates Powerball may tend to have more appeal to players these days. However, both games have exceeded $500 million many times, so either game can produce enormous jackpots.
Which Offers Better Overall Odds?
We’ve compared the jackpot odds, but what about your overall chances of winning any prize in each lottery? Your odds improve when you factor in the smaller secondary prizes.
| Lottery | Odds of Winning Any Prize |
|---|---|
| Powerball | 1 in 24.9 |
| Mega Millions | 1 in 24 |
Mega Millions has slightly better odds here, with a 1 in 24 chance of winning a prize compared to Powerball’s 1 in 24.9 odds. The secondary prizes improve your chances, although the odds are still heavily stacked against you in both games.
Which Game Pays out More Often?
Another consideration is the frequency of wins. If one lottery pays out prizes more often, it may give you more chances to win.
Over the past few years, Mega Millions has tended to have more frequent winners than Powerball:
- From 2018 to 2020, Mega Millions had a total of 50 jackpot winners over 110 drawings.
- Powerball had 40 jackpot winners over 131 drawings in that same time.
Part of this may be explained by Mega Millions having better overall odds. But in either game, your chances of winning remain incredibly small.
Which Game Pays Out More in Prizes?
If you overcome the odds and win, which game pays out more in prize money? Here are the payouts for each lottery:
| Lottery | Total Prizes Paid Out |
|---|---|
| Powerball | $23 billion |
| Mega Millions | $18.5 billion |
Powerball has distributed more money in prizes over the years. But Mega Millions isn’t far behind. Either game can produce enormous winnings, as evidenced by their dueling billion-dollar jackpots right now.
Which Game Has Better Probabilities?
Some additional math can help show which game offers better probabilities when you consider the odds and prizes together.
Your probability of winning is calculated by dividing the prize payout by the odds. So for Powerball, with a 1 in 292 million chance of winning $1.9 billion, the probability is:
$1.9 billion prize / 292,201,338 odds
= $6,490 expected payout
For Mega Millions, with a 1 in 302 million chance of winning $1.1 billion, the probability is:
$1.1 billion prize / 302,575,350 odds
= $3,638 expected payout
Based on the math, your expected payout is higher in Powerball by nearly $3,000. The huge jackpot combined with slightly better odds makes Powerball the better probability play right now.
The Tax Impact on Winnings
One final factor to think about is taxes. Whether you win Powerball or Mega Millions, your prize will be subject to taxes.
For jackpots, the federal tax rate is 37%. Some states also tax lottery winnings from 3 to 8%. That quickly eats into your prize.
The lotteries withhold taxes when you claim your prize. But you should be prepared for a heavy tax bill and consult a tax advisor to strategize reducing your tax payment.
Strategies for Playing the Lottery
Ultimately, your chances of winning either jackpot are incredibly slim. But if you do play, here are some tips to maximize your chances:
- Buy more tickets to increase your odds in direct proportion.
- Join an office pool to afford more tickets.
- Use quick pick to get random numbers.
- Don’t select all consecutive numbers or patterns.
- Purchase tickets when the jackpot is high to increase your potential payout.
Of course, winning the lottery comes down overwhelmingly to pure luck. But little strategies can help at the margins. And picking the lottery with better odds and probabilities can give you a slight edge.
So Which Lottery Should You Play?
Based on the odds, payouts, probability, and other factors, Powerball appears to come out slightly ahead of Mega Millions right now.
Powerball has:
- Better odds of winning the jackpot
- More frequent jackpots over $500 million lately
- Higher total payouts over time
- Higher expected payout based on current jackpots and odds
However, either Powerball or Mega Millions can produce enormous jackpots. The odds are stacked astronomically against winning either one. But for those who want to play, Powerball may have a slight statistical advantage over Mega Millions.
The Bottom Line
Winning Powerball or Mega Millions requires an unbelievable amount of luck. But looking at the odds and statistics can give you a bit of insight into which game provides better probabilities. Right now Powerball appears to have a slight edge over Mega Millions in terms of jackpot size, overall odds, payouts, and probabilities.
Of course, anything can happen in the lottery. One lucky player could defy the odds and win the next Mega Millions billion-dollar jackpot. But based on the numbers, your best statistical chance of hitting an astronomically unlikely jackpot win appears to be Powerball.